Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

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Alessandro Tadini
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3603-0853
Andrew Harris
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9137-8997
Julie Morin
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9601-4359
Andrea Bevilacqua
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0724-2593
Aline Peltier
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0005-301X
Willy Aspinall
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6014-6042
Stefano Ciolli
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4603-4877
Patrick Bachèlery
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0108-5486
Benjamin Bernard
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0333-5493
Jonas Biren
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9995-7552
Antonio Brum da Silveira
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7140-0050
Valéry Cayol
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9225-7441
Oryaëlle Chevrel
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1201-5448
Diego Coppola
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7181-4122
Hannah Dietterich
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7898-4343
Amy Donovan
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3596-5294
Olaya Dorado
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8062-4387
Stéphane Drenne
Olivier Dupéré
Lucia Gurioli
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5066-5153
Stephan Kolzenburg
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1364-007X
Jean-Christophe Komorowski
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6874-786X
Philippe Labazuy
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4518-3328
Domenico Mangione
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4337-8797
Stefano Mannini
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5946-530X
François Martel-Asselin
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0613-650X
Etienne Médard
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7040-7442
Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4653-2187
Victoria Rafflin
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8000-9643
Michael Ramsey
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8911-9187
Nicole Richter
Silvia Vallejo
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4587-6909
Nicolas Villeneuve
Silvia Zafrilla
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8117-9708

Abstract

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

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How to Cite
Tadini, A., Harris, A., Morin, J., Bevilacqua, A., Peltier, A., Aspinall, W., Ciolli, S., Bachèlery, P., Bernard, B., Biren, J., Brum da Silveira, A., Cayol, V., Chevrel, O., Coppola, D., Dietterich, H., Donovan, A., Dorado, O., Drenne, S., Dupéré, O., Gurioli, L., Kolzenburg, S., Komorowski, J.-C., Labazuy, P., Mangione, D., Mannini, S., Martel-Asselin, F., Médard, E., Pailot-Bonnétat, S., Rafflin, V., Ramsey, M., Richter, N., Vallejo, S., Villeneuve, N. and Zafrilla, S. (2022) “Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: an exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island”, Volcanica, 5(1), pp. 105–131. doi: 10.30909/vol.05.01.105131.
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