Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard Fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application

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Heather M. Craig
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4715-415X
Thomas M. Wilson
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8816-0708
Christina Magill
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8872-1678
Carol Stewart
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3781-6308
Alec J. Wild
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7688-5736

Abstract

Developing approaches to assess the impact of tephra fall to agricultural and forestry systems is essential for informing effective disaster risk management strategies. Fragility functions are commonly used as the vulnerability model within a loss assessment framework and represent the relationship between a given hazard intensity measure (e.g., tephra thickness) and the probability of impacts occurring. Impacts are represented here using an impact state (IS), which categorises qualitative and quantitative statements into a numeric scale. This study presents IS schemes for pastoral, horticultural, and forestry systems, and a suite of fragility functions estimating the probability of each IS occurring for 13 sub-sectors. Temporal vulnerability is accounted for by a ‘seasonality coefficient,’ and a ‘chemical toxicity coefficient’ is included to incorporate the increased vulnerability of pastoral farming systems when tephra is high in fluoride. The fragility functions are then used to demonstrate a deterministic impact assessment with current New Zealand exposure.

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How to Cite
Craig, H., Wilson, T., Magill, C., Stewart, C. and Wild, A. J. (2021) “Agriculture and forestry impact assessment for tephra fall hazard: Fragility function development and New Zealand scenario application”, Volcanica, 4(2), pp. 345–367. doi: 10.30909/vol.04.02.345367.
Section
Articles
Author Biographies

Heather M. Craig, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA)

Hazard and Risk Analyst
National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA)
10 Kyle Street
Riccarton
Christchurch 8100
New Zealand

Thomas M. Wilson, University of Canterbury

Professor in Disaster Risk and Resilience
School of Earth and Environment
Private Bag 4800
Christchurch 8100
New Zealand

Christina Magill, GNS Science

Senior Natural Hazards Risk Modeller
GNS Science
1 Fairway Drive
Avalon
Lower Hutt 5010
New Zealand

Carol Stewart, Massey University

Associate Professor
School of Health Sciences
College of Health
Massey University
PO Box 756
Wellington 6140
New Zealand

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